Hey Lawrence Yun and NAR! Where’s my $200?
From the email inbox:
Dear Member,
In recent months there has been extensive coverage and discussion of foreclosures, auction sales, and short sales. Actual data on these subjects, however, is somewhat limited.
We need your feedback and observations on these topics. We are interested in your opinion regarding housing condition in your market. We would appreciate your taking about 10 minutes of your time to fill out the survey we have prepared. To access the survey click the following link or copy and paste the link into your browser;
Link Redacted
The survey will remain open until Friday June 6, 2008.
At the end of the survey you will be given the opportunity to enter a drawing for 3 prizes of $200 each.
Your participation in this survey is confidential. Results of this study are analyzed at the aggregate, not individual, level. We appreciate your time and thank you in advance for your input.
Lawrence Yun
Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Research
The National Association of REALTORS®
My emphasis in the bold italics..
No, I didn’t take the survey just for a remote shot at winning $200.
But I’d like to at least have had the opportunity, as promised!
But nooooo…. I took the survey, and was promptly led to a Zoomerang splash screen thanking me and offering a free survey.
But no way to enter the drawing…
Don’t you guys test these things before hitting “send”?
You’ve got my address, feel free to mail the check. Or just apply it to my dues.
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Jonathan Miller on NAR Spin
There truly are not enough superlatives in the lexicon to adequately describe Jonathan Miller’s Matrix blog. If you don’t read it, well, you’re nuts.
Jonathan is a chartologist. And he’s come up with a great one in his post:
Yeah, I know, it’s a couple of weeks old. I’ve been busy! But it’s a chart / post that will stand the test of time.
Go forth and absorb.
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Yun to the Slaughterhouse: Not this time…
NAR Chief Economists are frequently blog fodder. I’ve done it, and almost every other real estate blogger that touches on national real estate news has done it. The bubble blogs regularly eviscerate NAR economists and forecasts.
It’s time to move past the previous NAR econ disaster David Lereah. He’s gone (thankfully) and Lawrence Yun has moved into the top spot.
And dare I say it, but Dr. Yun does seem to be coming out with a dose of reality regarding housing, and the piles of real estate statistics the NAR generates. One just has to read many of his “Economists Commentaries” to see he does inject reality into many of his musings on the state of the housing market.
The latest from Yun is in a USA Today article, “Experts, consumers share home market views”. (H/T to Jim Duncan via one of his clients)
In this article Yun states things like:
Consumers need to find out what is going on at the local level and not necessarily take national headline numbers as a point of reference. Sellers tend to be more stubborn in facing the reality of the market, so people who really need to sell need to come down on prices, given the high inventory and seller competition.
And:
2008 is a year of clean-up. Afterwards, better conditions.
It’s honest, real and I find it refreshing.
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Lawrence Yun: “Necessary Corrections”
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun had this to say in a recent article:
Based on the latest available information, my outlook is for new single-family home construction to decline for another year-and-a-half through the second quarter of 2009.
Dr. Yun’s predecessor was routinely blasted across the internet for his overly optimistic (and often inaccurate) forecasts.
That Dr. Yun is offering a not-so-bright (yet realistic, IMHO) opinion is refreshing.
Athol Kay points out a similar instance in a different Yun article.
If you don’t already, I recommend subscribing to Yun’s commentary feed. You just may find it honest and real, and not a bunch of roses and sunshine fluff.
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NAR Chief Economist Answers Back
Ok, I’ll be the first to admit I haven’t always been exactly gentle with NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
But I really think Yun’s biggest problem is the mess he inherited from his predecessor David Lereah. Lereah was widely panned pretty much across the known universe. For Yun to have to step into that quagmire can not have been simple.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Yun as had his own moments of way too sunshiny pontifications, but he does at least look at times like he has a clue.
He’s recently begun posting a series of articles on a new page at Realtor.org called “Economist’s Commentary“.
If you subscribe to the NAR Research RSS feed, you can get Economist Commentary plopped right into your reader.
Jim Duncan over at RealCentralVA thinks this latest offering, “is exactly what the NAR needs to do“.
And I’m inclined to agree with him.
(NOTE: I am NOT saying this is ALL they need to do…)
Why not put these commentaries in a blog and let people leave comments?
Others Opine: Scott Brunner (VAR CEO) discusses this earlier today. (that’s what I get for being 987 posts behind in my feed reader.)
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NAR Related Post of the Week
Athol Kay writes: NAR is Spinister
It is a must read…
Spin + Sinister = Spinister
Spinister: A presented research thesis so chock full of knowingly misleading information presented as fact to support a outcome desired by the person or group funding the research. Also it’s probably evil.
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Get Your Banner Ads While They’re Hot
“Rates are Low, Inventory is High. Now is a Great Time to Buy” had a really cool rhyme and everything but wasn’t quite what I was looking for.
I think this sums things up a little bit better:
Waiting in My Inbox
Adding too much of my own commentary only can ruin it. From NAR this morning …
As we kick off another year “All Together,” it is easy to get caught up in news about what is wrong with the real estate market. The truth is that 2008 is shaping up to be a promising year for real estate, with plenty of opportunities to buy and sell in every market.
According to NAR Research, there is significant pent-up housing demand that will begin to be unleashed into the marketplace in 2008. Many markets will see rising home sales and strengthening home prices. We believe that the worst of the credit problems are behind us. Great news for consumers and REALTORS®!
…
Since 1908, REALTORS® have worked hard to earn a reputation as America’s leading community builders and dream makers. Today, the “Voice for Real Estate” is stronger than it has ever been, speaking for millions of consumers in neighborhoods across America. And, we’re just getting started.
…
NAR is constantly working on your behalf, and we want to hear from you. Please do not hesitate to contact us with your thoughts and suggestions. With your help, we will show consumers across the nation that now is a great time to invest in real estate. We are in this “All Together!”
Should I laugh? Cry? Shake my head? All three?
I don’t even know anymore.
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<Editor’s note: this post is a contribution from Jonathan Dalton>
Dalton Gets the Years Last Laugh
Courtesy of NAR Chief Economist Larry Yun
Best wishes for all for a very happy, safe and prosperous 2008.
My one resolution for this blog is to post more frequently…
Some Interesting Commentary from *Outside* the RE.net on NAR Forecasts
As real estate professionals and webloggers, we often tend to get sucked into our little corner of the world. We all have our opinions of NAR forecasts, be that good, bad or indifferent. I happen to believe it is good to step outside the real estate world and take a look at how those who don’t sell real estate for a living perceive things…
The NAR’s Sunshine Boys - via Popmatters.com
You can’t trust anything their forecasters say.
This is apparent to anyone who follows developments in the housing industry in the business press, yet the business press continues to report their meaningless sunshiny accounts of the economy as though it constitutes news, discrediting other analysts across the board. Journalosts could get much more reputable numbers from the National Association of Home Builders, a trade association rather than a sales association, with less of an agenda in its forecasts.
This post refers to an article on Slate — Worst. Forecasters. Ever? The cockeyed optimists of the National Association of Realtors — that was posted on December 10.
And speaking of the Slate article, last week Daniel Gross, the author of that piece, held an online Q&A on the Washington Post:
Slate columnist Daniel Gross was online on Washingtonpost.com on Dec. 13, 2007, to discuss the National Association of Realtors’ sunny report on the housing market and other financial topics. An unedited transcript of the chat follows.
Here is the link to the transcript. This is very interesting reading folks…